Svante Arrhenius publishes the first CO2 climate-sensitivity study
- When
- 1896
- Where
- London, Edinburgh, and Dublin
- Episodes
- 1
In April 1896, Svante Arrhenius published a study in the Philosophical Magazine estimating how atmospheric carbon dioxide affects Earth's surface temperature. This work, based on physical chemistry principles, provided the first quantitative prediction of global warming from a hypothetical doubling of CO2. While Arrhenius worked in Stockholm, the publication occurred in a British journal, correcting legacy location errors.
Episodes
Background and detail
Background. Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish scientist and founder of physical chemistry, applied basic principles to calculate the extent to which increased atmospheric carbon dioxide would raise Earth's surface temperature. His work aimed to explain ice ages and demonstrated that CO2 increases cause global warming, assuming other factors remain constant. This established the foundation for understanding the greenhouse effect quantitatively.
Scientific Impact. Arrhenius's estimates are broadly in agreement with modern General circulation models. He was the first to predict that fossil fuel combustion emissions were large enough to cause global warming, based on data from colleague Arvid Högbom. His work is viewed as the first demonstration of CO2-induced warming, rather than an accurate quantification, though it laid the groundwork for later climate science.
People involved
- Svante Arrhenius · Author and Scientist
- Arvid Högbom · Colleague providing data
Sources
- Svante Arrhenius Wikipedia, revision of 2026-10-06
- Greenhouse effect Wikipedia, revision of 2026-08-11
Machine-drafted from the cited Wikipedia passages and checked by a reviewing model, not by a human editor. Every passage cites the revision it was written from; dates and places follow those passages.